The "non-race" for State
Senate District 48 is heating up... which sounds rather funny
since, officially, the Senate seat currently held by attorney
Billy Ray isn't vacant. But there are at least four potential
candidates circling Ray's office like vultures waiting for injured
prey to die. And to continue the unpleasant analogy, there may be
one bird which has made off with the carcass before the others
have even landed.
Routine background checks and
other administrative minutiae have delayed the announcement of
retiring Judge Oxendine's replacement from a "short list" of
applicants. Final interviews have already been conducted, and
Senator Ray is, according to political insiders, a shoo-in for the
bench seat. Ray may be named as early as this week; next week at
the absolute latest. The Governor will call a special election to
fill the unexpired term for early February, meaning a 30- to
40-day campaign for the circling flock.
The Players
Tommy Hughes: The
former County Commissioner is reportedly still considering a bid
for the Senate seat although he continues to lay low, counting on
his ability to quickly drum up financial support for a "sneak
attack" of sorts. The commercial real estate broker from Buford
would likely borrow tens of thousands of dollars to fuel his
political "blitzkrieg," counting on heavy backing from the real
estate development community he served so well as Commissioner to
pay the bill. Hughes would also have at his disposal substantial
personal funds from his own real estate trading activities.
If Hughes chooses to run, he
will wait until Ray's appointment is final to announce his
intentions. Expect his announcement to be met by a firestorm of
opposition from homeowners and citizen activist groups from
Commission District 1, who have vowed to marshal their resources
to end Hughes' political career.
Bobby Reese: State
Representative Reese (R-Sugar Hill) has let it be known that he
might be interested in the 48th Senate seat, but Reese would enter
the race with a number of strikes against him.
The Democrats' redistricting
efforts at the state level have put Reese into a single district
with fellow Republicans James Mills (R-Gainesville) and Mike Coan
(R-Lawrenceville). In this multi-member district, only two of the
three could be returned to office next year.
Reese had reportedly been
receiving encouragement from colleagues to run for the Senate
seat, leaving Coan and Mills to seek reelection. More recently,
however, Mills began preparing to run for Secretary of State,
eliminating the pressure on Reese to run for another office.
Also, to run in the State
Senate special election, Reese would be forced to resign his seat
in the State House, paving the way for another a special election
which would invite a handful of newcomers into the race, further
complicating Coan and Mills' reelection chances.
Should Reese run for the
Senate seat in the special election, the new state ethics law
would require him to refund every dollar in his State Rep.
campaign fund and restart his fundraising from scratch. In a short
election cycle, it would be very difficult to generate public
support with limited funds.
Sunny Warren: Another
potential candidate facing a money crunch is Gwinnett Republican
Party Chairman Sunny Warren. Warren was reportedly waiting until
after 12/31/01 (a campaign contribution disclosure deadline) to
commit to a campaign so that she wouldn't have to disclose that
she had exactly $0 in her bank account. Like Reese, Warren would
start a shortened campaign cycle at a decided disadvantage,
especially in a race against Hughes and David Shafer.
David Shafer: Duluth
resident David Shafer is light years ahead of the other contenders
in the "non-race" for Senate 48. Shafer is the only potential
candidate to have officially formed a campaign committee, and he
has apparently proven that he can generate the campaign dollars to
rival Hughes' reported bankroll.
Sources close to Shafer's
campaign say that year-end disclosures will show his exploratory
campaign having banked over $60,000 in contributions by December
31, and that without holding a single fundraiser or sending out a
direct mail solicitation. Former Republican gubernatorial nominee
Guy Millner, one of the Republican Party's most prolific
fundraisers, has reportedly signed on to lead Shafer's fundraising
effort in the special election with a budget of over $250,000.
Waffle House CEO Joe Rogers, another top Republican fundraiser,
has served as chairman of the Shafer exploratory committee.
Shafer has been hard at work
collecting the endorsements as well. His campaign web site,
www.davidshafer.com, boasts a growing list of endorsements
from most major political figures in Gwinnett, Forsyth and Fulton
Counties, and a campaign leadership committee with over 400
members.
Shafer appears to be taking
Billy Ray's appointment for granted as he campaigns throughout the
old 48th Senate District. Yard signs are popping up all over the
district and dozens of community leaders report having received
personal phone calls from Shafer.
It also appears that Shafer
will gain the support of homeowners and citizen activist groups
which see him as the best chance to derail Tommy Hughes' grab for
continued political power.
